As Metro Vancouver mayors get down to voting today on a plan to boost gas taxes and possibly bump property taxes to pay for transit improvements, a new report is suggesting Evergreen Line revenue projections may be overly optimistic.
The analysis by transportation commissioner Martin Crilly says ridership projections of increases between 65% and 70% in six years after opening are "somewhat optimistic," although "not impossible."
He says in the report (available at www.translinkcommission.org under What's New) that he didn't have enough data from TransLink to provide a thorough analysis but he's doubtful such a ridership boost could be accomplished so soon along what he called a low-density corridor.
"This appears optimistic given that it is recognized that the primary role of the Evergreen Line is to shape land use in a relatively low-density sector of the region," he wrote.
And if ridership numbers don't meet projections, revenue could fall - and even a 25% drop in projected "new" ridership could result in a loss of $28 million in fare revenue over six years.
Meanwhile, the city of Coquitlam is in negotiations with the province over a proposed Lincoln station near Town Centre that would have the desired effect of boosting density to support ridership.
"The whole idea is to densify the Tri-Cities and to build in the Tri-Cities so we increase the ridership," said Maurice Gravelle, Coquitlam's general manager of strategic initiatives. He said he couldn't be more detailed about negotiations because they are confidential.
Current funding provides for six stations: Lougheed Town Centre in Burnaby(at the current Millennium Line SkyTrain station), Burquitlam in Coquitlam, the West Coast Express and Ioco Road in Port Moody, Coquitlam Central station (the transit exchange near Barnet and Lougheed highways) and Douglas College (adjacent to the Evergreen Cultural Centre at the northwest corner of Guildford and Pinetree ways). All have been chosen because they are close to homes, workplaces and transit.
In addition to a station at Lincoln, two more stations have yet to be confirmed: West Port Moody and Falcon Drive in Coquitlam.
