There will be no commercial openings this year for Fraser River sockeye, but B.C. sport fishers may be enjoying a banner year.
The Sport Fishing Institute of B.C. reports good catches for chinook and coho this year, so far.
“Marked and unmarked coho and chinook are particularly plentiful in Georgia Strait and Juan De Fuca,” the institute reports. “This bodes well for strong returns of mature fish later in the year and is potentially an indication that good ocean conditions persist in inside as well as outside waters.”
It’s a very different story for the commercial sector, the bread and butter of which has always been Fraser River sockeye.
The pre-season forecast for this year’s return is the lowest on record. And those sockeye that do return are facing less then ideal conditions in the Fraser River in terms of river levels and temperatures.
The Pacific Salmon Commission (PSC) estimates this year’s return could be well below the 1 million that is needed for escapement.
The Big Bar slide in 2019, which blocked salmon from getting to spawning beds beyond Big Bar, is expected to be one of the contributing factors for the poor expected returns this year.
“The sockeye run size forecast for 2024 is the lowest forecast on record,” the PSC writes in a weekly report.
“This low forecast is due to the low number of sockeye that returned in 2020 and the impact of the Big Bar landslide in the previous year, in particular for early migrating stocks such as Early Stuart and Bowron.
“Fraser River sockeye salmon forecasts for 2024 remain uncertain due to the substantial variability in annual survival rates and uncertainty about changes in productivity, especially for Chilliwack and Harrison stocks. The total Fraser sockeye salmon median forecast (50 per cent probability level) is 567,000 fish, which is well below the cycle average.”
Fisheries managers need about 1 million sockeye just for escapement purposes. That’s how many need to be allowed to return to natal streams to spawn. Only after escapement targets are reached are fisheries then opened to food, social and ceremonial fisheries for First Nations, followed by commercial openings.
The PSC in a July 19 report also notes that sockeye are currently facing both low river levels and high temperatures in the Fraser River. It notes that water discharge at Hope on July 18 was 33 per cent lower than average for this date, and temperatures were 3.1 degrees Celsius higher than average.
Sockeye are particularly sensitive to temperature. They have been known to pool in estuaries, waiting for cool temperature signals before moving upstream. This can result in sockeye becoming vulnerable to predators or simply running out of energy and dying before they can spawn.
It appears to be a very different story for chinook and coho, which appear to have been rebounding after many years of very low abundance levels.
“It’s off to a very good start,” said Owen Bird, executive director for the Sport Fishing Institute of B.C. “Depending on where you are, there’s just some really remarkable abundance.”
Chinook – the fish favoured most by sports fishers – experienced several cycles of low abundance in B.C. over a period of a couple of a decades.
But they staged a comeback last year, with some 400,000 chinook returning to the South Thompson River system – more than three times the 125,000 that had been expected – Bird noted.
He added that Cowichan River chinook are also at historic highs.
“They’ve been that way for the last several years,” Bird said.
Despite the improved abundance, Fisheries and Oceans Canada is maintaining a ban on retention of Cowichan River chinook.
“The rationale to maintain those restrictions is not understood at all,” Bird said. “There’s no good reason for it.”
Bird said the improved abundance for chinook is “inexplicable.” He can only assume ocean conditions have been favouring chinook.
