VICTORIA — Voting officials say recounts in two ridings that could determine the outcome of British Columbia's election won't start until Sunday afternoon — and it won't be until Monday before the makeup of the legislature is finalized.
The updated timeline provided by Elections BC says results of the Surrey City Centre recount will be posted on its website on Sunday when it is complete, while the outcome from Juan De Fuca—Malahat will be posted when it is finished the next day.
The initial count after the Oct. 19 election ended with neither Premier David Eby's NDP nor the B.C. Conservatives led by John Rustad securing the 47 ridings needed for a majority.
The election agency also says in a statement that screening of uncounted absentee and mail-in ballots has identified 65,000 votes provincewide that will also be tallied from Saturday until Monday, up from the previous estimate of 49,000.
The NDP was elected or leading in 46 ridings after the initial count, the Conservatives had 45, while the Greens won two.
Stewart Prest, a political science lecturer with the University of British Columbia, says it's hard to predict the impact those 65,000 votes could have on the end result.
The NDP is holding a 23-vote lead in the Vancouver Island riding of Juan de Fuca-Malahat and a 95-vote lead in Surrey City Centre.
Prest says he believes it's "within the realm of possibility" that Juan de Fuca-Malahat could flip to the Conservatives.
"I think it's less likely that the Conservatives would actually end with a majority, which is the most meaningful switch, given how it looks like the parties are organizing themselves," he says.
This wouldn't be the first time British Columbia has been governed by a minority in recent memory.
In 2017, the Greens struck a power-sharing agreement that resulted in a minority NDP government.
Prest says recent elections in Canada have become closer and more polarized.
"It's something we also see at the federal level as well, where there does seem to be this real divide in the country that is somewhat stable, and then it's a battle over much smaller proportions of the population that are open minded to the idea of voting for either of these two polarized camps," he says.
If the NDP hangs on to one or both of Surrey City Centre and Juan De Fuca—Malahat, the party will be in a position to return to power in a minority government if it secures Green support, while if Conservatives flip both they will have the numbers for a majority government.
The Greens could also support a Conservative-led minority government, but there are wide ideological differences between the two parties.
Elections BC says in a news release that a partial manual recount will also take place in Kelowna Centre, as a result of a one-vote transcription discrepancy involving a single electronic tabulator, with the problem "likely due to election official error."
But the recount there will only involve votes that passed through the tabulator in question, and the lead held by the Conservative candidate is 148 votes.
"A ballot account is a form completed by election officials showing the number of ballots issued and the votes for each candidate based on the tabulator results tape," the agency explained.
"While the tabulator in question (in Kelowna Centre) passed all testing and produced results accurately, a recount of the ballots counted by that tabulator will be conducted as a result of the ballot account error."
The recount in Kelowna Centre results from a request lodged by NDP candidate Loyal Woodridge.
"Recount requests in Courtenay-Comox, Maple Ridge East, Oak Bay-Gordon Head, and Surrey-Guildford did not meet the requirements ... and were declined," Elections BC says.
It says the tally of mail-in ballots in all districts will be updated on its website at 1 p.m. and 4 p.m. on Saturday and Sunday and whenever a district's tally is complete.
Prest says Elections BC has gone through a "substantial learning process" when it comes to dealing with tight elections, allowing it to get the final results out in a week.
"I think the process that we're seeing play out now in the space of the week, and the use of the electronic tabulators, and ... mail-in ballots, all this suggests that effectively Elections BC has upped its game considerably in terms of working through the realities of recounts and finalizing results," he says.
A small number of remaining absentee ballots, which Elections BC says represent about one per cent of the total of more than two million ballots cast, will be counted on Monday, with the results updated on its website hourly.
"Because of B.C.’s vote anywhere model, electoral districts are counting results for multiple electoral districts. This means that voting results will not be finalized until every district has finished counting," it says.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.
The Canadian Press
