Tom Willander’s NCAA season with Boston University ended over two weeks ago. He and his teammates made it to the championship game in the Frozen Four, but ran into a red-hot Western Michigan team, losing 6-2 in the final.
It was expected that Willander would sign with the Vancouver Canucks soon after his season ended, giving him the opportunity to possibly play an NHL game or at least suit up for the Abbotsford Canucks in the AHL playoffs.
Instead, it’s almost May, and Willander still hasn’t been signed.
What on earth is going on?
Willander heading back to school?
Let’s be clear: this is very unusual. Literally dozens of drafted prospects have already signed with their NHL teams this year after their NCAA seasons ended, including three of Willander’s Boston University teammates, Devin Kaplan, Ryan Greene, and captain Shane Lachance, who all signed within three days of the championship game.
Typically, when a prospect in the NCAA decides to turn pro, the contract gets hammered out almost immediately, as long as the NHL team still wants that prospect.
The most befuddling element of the situation is how general manager Patrik Allvin discussed Willander at the team’s end-of-season media availability.
“His advisor has informed us that he was going back to school,” said Allvin. “Our development staff, Mikael Samuelsson and Mike Komisarek, have built a great relationship with Tom during the year and they felt that he was ready to turn pro after two successful years at Boston University.
“It’s a lot of money for a young player to pass on, but that’s the information we have here: as of last week, from his agent, the intention was to go back to school.”
This makes it sound like Willander’s preference is not to turn pro but instead to go back to school for his junior year. But, according to Willander’s advisor, Todd Diamond, that’s not true at all. Instead, the issue is that the Canucks’ contract offer isn’t up to snuff.
“Our intent was/is to turn pro,” said Diamond to ChekTV’s Rick Dhaliwal. “But if we don’t agree on a contract that Tom and his family are comfortable with, returning to BU and other situations become possible over the next few seasons.”
Dhaliwal has further reported on Sportsnet 650’s Halford & Brough show that the Canucks and Willander are not that far apart.
“Some say the gap is only $200,000,” said Dhaliwal. “Cooler heads should prevail and get this kid a part of the Canucks. He wants to turn pro, he was willing to go to Abbotsford. He never ever asked for guaranteed ice time, he’s not even asking for full max bonuses. This is a big piece of your blue line in the future, get the kid signed.”
Despite the seemingly small gap between the two sides, Willander himself said, “It’s not close to being a done deal,” in an interview with Elite Prospects’ Cam Robinson. In that interview, it certainly sounded like Willander was ready to move on from college hockey and turn pro.
“I don’t think I’m in any way too good for the league,” said Willander about the NCAA. “But thinking about optimizing development, I don’t know if that’s what I need. It might not be the perfect spot for me anymore.”
In other words, even if Willander doesn’t sign with the Canucks, he might not head back to school as the Canucks claimed. He might end up going back to Sweden to play in the SHL.
How entry-level contracts work in the NHL
Here’s the thing: if the two sides are $200,000 apart, it’s not even actual money they're talking about; it’s potential money.
In theory, negotiating an entry-level contract is easy.
With most NHL contracts, there are all sorts of moving parts: salary, term, signing bonuses, performance bonuses (if they’re eligible), no-trade or no-movement clauses, AHL salary on two-way contracts, and even year-by-year differences in salary and bonuses, which can frontload a contract or provide guaranteed money during a potential lockout year. It can get pretty complicated.
An entry-level contract, on the other hand, is comparably simple. There are set boundaries for a player’s first NHL contract that are either non-negotiable or seldom a part of negotiations.
The length of an entry-level contract is determined by age and can’t be negotiated. The maximum base salary depends on when a player was drafted, with first-round picks and other top prospects typically signing for that maximum, and receiving a signing bonus of 10% of that base salary.
For Willander, that means a three-year entry-level contract with a base salary of $950,000 per year, with a $95,000 signing bonus. Just three prospects signed from the first round in 2023, when Willander was drafted, signed for less than $950,000, and all three were in the second half of the first round and were just barely under that maximum.
That leaves just one thing subject to negotiation: performance bonuses.
Performance bonuses in NHL entry-level contracts
For entry-level contracts, there are two categories of bonuses: “A” and “B” level. Each “A” level bonus is achieved by reaching a certain minimum threshold to receive a payout, with each worth a maximum of $250,000. Players can get a maximum of $1 million if they achieve at least four bonuses.
For defencemen, these minimum thresholds are 10 goals, 25 assists, 40 points, top-two among defencemen on the team in blocked shots, being named to an end-of-season all-rookie team, getting an All-Star Game selection, and winning All-Star MVP, as well as a few that are dependent on playing at least 42 games: top-four in ice time among defencemen on the team, top-three in plus/minus among defencemen on the team, and 0.49 points per game.
These bonuses can be split up. For instance, a defenceman can receive a bonus of $150,000 for scoring 10 goals and then a further $100,000 bonus for reaching 15 goals, as long as the total bonus doesn’t exceed $250,000 for any one category.
Every player on an entry-level contract is eligible for “B” level bonuses, which are paid out for winning a league award, finishing among the top vote-getters for a league award, or finishing in the top ten in certain league categories. The NHL pays out these bonuses, with no impact on the salary cap, but players can also have additional bonuses in their contract to be paid out by the team if they achieve one of these milestones. Those, however, are typically reserved for elite prospects.
The “A” level bonuses are evidently the sticking point for Willander’s contract negotiations.
What performance bonuses could Willander achieve?
A top prospect like Willander would typically have anywhere from $650,000 to the maximum of $1 million in “A” level bonuses written into his contract, picking from the slate of possible bonuses. Indeed, some top prospects get the full slate of bonuses — if they achieve any four, they’ll get the maximum $1 million.
That appears to be the case for another defenceman prospect, Zeev Buium. The Wild drafted Buium in 2024 in a similar spot in the first round to Willander. After his sophomore season at the University of Denver, in which he put up 48 points in 41 games, Buium signed his entry-level contract with the Wild and is currently playing for them in the playoffs.
Starting next season, Buium has a potential performance bonus of $1 million, which is the maximum for "A" level bonuses.
Willander is a very different prospect from Buium — he scored far fewer goals and had just 24 points in 39 games — but is still seen as a top prospect thanks to his shutdown defensive game. It would be reasonable for him to similarly receive the full slate of “A” level bonuses up to a maximum of $1 million.
According to Dhaliwal, Willander isn't even asking for that maximum.
These bonuses are only paid out if Willander actually achieves those minimum thresholds, and it would be a very good thing for the Canucks if he did so. But it's far from guaranteed that he achieves any of them.
The odds of Willander scoring ten goals or 40 points in a season in the NHL are relatively low, as that’s not really his game. The ice time, blocked shots, and plus/minus thresholds might be achievable, and it certainly seems possible that he could be named to the All-Rookie Team in his first year in the NHL, but a lot would have to go right for Willander to get there.
Again, if the Canucks and Willander are $200,000 apart, it’s in theoretical money that only gets paid out if Willander plays like a legitimate top-four defenceman. It’s not in base salary or signing bonuses, just in performance bonuses.
So, why are the Canucks nickel-and-diming their top prospect?
Are the Canucks manufacturing consent for a trade?
One reason to play hardball on contract negotiations is if a management team is trying to preemptively justify a trade. In that case, they might paint a picture of a prospect who is unwilling to play ball on contract negotiations, thereby manufacturing consent for a trade in the fanbase.
In such a situation, the management team is hoping that fans will say, “Well, if they couldn’t get him signed to a reasonable deal, of course they had to trade him.”
To be clear, there’s no insider information suggesting the Canucks are trying to trade Willander. But, at the end-of-season press conference, Rutherford was clear that the team badly needs to add another top-six centre, while also noting that they’re unlikely to find one in free agency.
“The biggest thing for us is to strengthen our centre ice,” said Rutherford. “Getting that centre ice strengthened, then you can do a lot of different things with your wingers, so that will be Patrik’s priority.”
“Maybe we get a good free agent to come here,” he added. “I think it’s more likely that we’re going to have to trade for the players that we’re going to need.”
Top-six centres don’t come cheap in the trade market. Allvin has repeatedly said that teams have asked for the Canucks’ top prospects in trades and he hasn’t been willing to part with them, but with the need so great, then the Canucks might have to part with a prospect like Willander to get a deal done.
“It’ll be expensive,” said Rutherford. “But it’ll be also very expensive not to get one. So, we’re gonna be open to do whatever it takes — probably on the trade market — to get that player.”
Trading a top prospect is rarely a popular move, as fans grow attached to the potential of prospects and are eager to see that potential pay off in the NHL. But if you can make it sound like that player doesn’t want to sign, then maybe the trade becomes an easier sell.
Performance bonuses and the NHL salary cap
There is another reason why the Canucks might be playing hardball on bonuses: the salary cap.
How performance bonuses affect the cap gets a bit complicated.
In theory, on day one of the NHL season, any player on the roster with performance bonuses on their contract could achieve those bonuses during the season. Since those bonuses count against the salary cap, the team would, in theory, need to have enough cap space to accommodate those bonuses.
That’s not very practical, so the NHL has a performance bonus pool, which works alongside the cap relief pool for players on long-term injured reserve (LTIR). Essentially, a team can exceed the cap by up to 7.5% in potential performance bonuses.
That performance bonus pool is set at the beginning of the season based on the players on the roster. If enough players achieve performance bonuses that the team goes above the salary cap by the end of the season, those bonuses roll over to the following season’s cap hit. Any team that is over the cap because of using their LTIR cap relief pool will have performance bonuses carry over.
There’s one other way, however, that performance bonuses interact with the cap.
If a player is not on the opening-day roster but later gets called up, his potential performance bonuses don’t get added to the performance bonus pool. That pool is set at the beginning of the season.
That means, if the team doesn’t have enough room in their performance bonus pool, they have to be able to fit a player’s entire cap hit, including potential performance bonuses, under the salary cap to call up that player.
That’s partly why the Canucks did some fancy papering down back in 2023 to get Vasily Podkolzin on the opening-day roster for the 2023-24 season. There was no intent for Podkolzin to actually start the season with the Canucks, but including him on the roster put his potential performance bonuses of $850,000 in the performance bonus relief pool in case they needed it (as well as maximizing their LTIR relief pool).
With few players who are waiver-exempt, that’s not the easiest trick to pull off, and the Canucks didn’t even bother trying to do so with Jonathan Lekkerimäki this past season.
While the Canucks did not spend to the cap this past season, they have broadcast their intent to do so this coming season. They will also be forced to contend with the buyout for Oliver Ekman-Larsson increasing by $2.42 million.
Is playing hardball with Willander really the best way to cut costs?
If the Canucks plan to spend big in free agency and possibly acquire a highly-paid player or two via trade, they’ll have to be conscious of their spending elsewhere. Perhaps that’s why they’re concerned about performance bonuses for Willander, who they might not be able to fit on their opening-day roster but will likely want to call up during the season.
If Willander gets a full slate of performance bonuses, his cap hit would go from $950,000 to $1.95 million if the Canucks wanted to call him up from the AHL and they didn’t have the performance bonus pool to accommodate his potential bonuses. If the Canucks are up against the salary cap, that could become an issue.
Alternately, if Willander is on the opening-day roster, giving the Canucks a full performance bonus pool to cover his bonuses and he actually achieves four of his “A” level bonuses, that would potentially cause a carryover in his cap hit to the following season, constraining their spending as they try to push for the playoffs and a Stanley Cup.
If that’s the thinking behind playing hardball with Willander, it still seems like there would be better ways to cut costs than souring the relationship with the team’s top prospect on defence.
