The Farmer Almanac’s long-range forecast is predicting another hot summer for most of Canada, while in B.C., it is calling for seasonal but dry weather.
Environment Canada's longterm temperature models are suggesting a warmer-than-normal summer.
The prediction is obviously early, but Environment Canada’s senior climatologist David Phillips says the country has been recording increasingly hotter temperatures over the past two decades.
“Twelve of the warmest summers in British Columbia, nine of them have occurred since the year 2000. I mean, that truly tells you what the trend is," expressed Phillips.
"If you’re a betting person, you’d bet a few loonies on the fact that BC will have another warm summer like they did last year and the year before.”
Phillips says a drier winter and spring could lead to forest fire trouble for the Okanagan this year. Agriculture Canada says the northern half of the Okanagan Valley and Shuswap are seeing a "moderate" drought.
“Your wet season has been kind of on the short side, so I sense that that may be something that comes back and bites you," Phillips said.
"There hasn’t been a recharge of the moisture you’d normally see during the wet season... My sense is that [BC] is not back to levels now that would make it comfortable for people who need that moisture, whether it be forest firefighters or orchardists.”
Phillips says this summer’s temperatures may not be record-setting in terms of heat, but that the province’s averages have been climbing faster than the rest of the country for quite some time.
“The trend is clearly telling you summers are warmer than normal," said Phillips.
"In fact, if we take a look at the last 75 years, summers have warmed in British Columbia. If you take the province as a whole, summers are about 1.6 degrees warmer in that trend over 75 years, which is certainly a lot more than the global average. The global average is probably 1.1 over the last 130 years, but British Columbia has really been almost twice as much in half the time.”
